Economics

In a year shaped by geopolitical tensions, a pandemic, war, inflation and supply-chain disruptions, the number one threat perceived by the general public remains inflation. That’s according to McKinsey & Company’s Economic Conditions Outlook June 2022 survey, which found that inflation topped the list of perceived economic hazards in respondents’ home countries, while geopolitical conflicts…

Legendary hedge fund billionaire and investor Howard Marks, founder of Oaktree Capital, is one of the most respected finance commentators in the world, by virtue of his clarity and understanding of the market cycle. Speaking at Edinburgh Business School recently, a fireside discussion with Marks highlighted the very difficult challenges facing investors today. There is…

After months of fretting about soaring inflation, markets are now fully in recession-fear mode. Yield curves are flattening, credit spreads are widening, and equities are slumping—traditional recession alerts. Meanwhile, captains of industry and finance are warning of impending “hurricanes,” “super bad feelings”—and possibly even worse. The proximate cause of the latest market selloffs was the…

As quickly as the world came out of the pandemic, it was faced with yet another black swan event that caused markets to capitulate, and left supply chains in disarray. The fallout from the war in Ukraine is causing a food, commodity and fuel crisis which has given way to higher prices and a sharp…

With the US Federal Reserve’s faster tightening than many had expected, it has increased the risk of recession and policy error, making a hard landing more likely than a soft landing. Clearbridge Investment Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Schulze analyses this phenomenon and whether other developments have emerged. Schulze says, “CPI inflation at 8.6% against the Federal…

Legendary investor Ray Dalio has warned against believing all will be well if central banks simply increase interest rates to get inflation under control. In a public Linkedin post, the founder and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates believes the US economy is heading toward a stagflationary environment of high inflation, high unemployment and low…

With most economists predicting that inflation will be higher in the coming decade than the past, new analysis from Bain & Company suggests that the normal level of inflation in the 2020s may be lower than that currently feared, and financial planners shouldn’t assume that inflation will remain high.   The Reserve Bank of Australia…

“Cost of living concerns and fears of a recession are growing, but Australian equity investors shouldn’t panic. Many Australian listed firms have negligible exposure to, or benefit from, rising inflation and interest rates.” That’s the advice from research house Morningstar to help calm investors from becoming too overwhelmed. According to Morningstar, an Australian recession is…

“Recession? Who knows? We’re not bearish, especially with our value style of investing. It’s bit of war like scenario. After the war’s over, we get inflation and that’s what we’re in. It’s the transitory talk that is the problem. We think for various reasons, this inflation isn’t transitory,” says James Holt who spoke about investing…

The Reserve Bank’s decision to hike interest rates by more than 50 basis points, double that predicted by the majority of economists “changes the journey, not the destination,” according to Charlie Jamieson of Jamieson Coote Bonds. Speaking at an intimate event alongside industry leaders Giselle Roux and Mark Burgess, Jamieson warned of the difficulty policymakers…

The Russia-Ukraine war has seemingly moved from the headlines in most of the developed world, with most attention now being paid to the challenge of a jump in the cost of living and the impact of higher interest rates on repayments and property prices. Yet, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has and will continue to have…

Head of Australian Equities at T. Rowe Price, Randal Jenneke, has released a note to clients that conveys a somewhat cautious tone towards the Australian equity market. His concern stems from a lack of recognition in the local equity market of the aggressive monetary tightening cycle expected to play-out. With interest rates on the rise,…