Economics

Conversations on investment matters are wide-ranging. Many enjoy the ethereal world of big picture debates. Identifying these in the long run has been critical, but only a handful matter. Interest rates are the perennial, though rarely has the consensus been right. Over much of the past decade the expectation has been that rates will inevitably…

When COVID-19 found its way to Australia the health advice was to mandate social distancing by closing businesses deemed non-essential and restricting people’s movement. The economic consequences were tragic – both at the aggregate level and because certain industries and occupations were far more heavily impeded. A broad and bold policy response was required, and…

The Inside Network welcomed financial advisers, asset consultants, and family offices from around the globe for its first Equities and Growth Assets Symposium this year. At a packed-out event, some of the brightest minds collaborated and discussed the challenges and opportunities in equity markets at a time when the world is seen to be entering…

After a quick scare in February, which delivered the worst month on record for Australian bond markets and a rare loss for the ‘low-risk’ asset class, markets have quickly normalised. Bond yields continue to retreat despite growing evidence that the global economic recovery is stepping up another gear. Despite this feeling of normality, and perhaps…

“Am I worried about asset prices rising too quickly? At the moment, I don’t see anything that’s unsustainable”. “I recognise that low interest rates are one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people.” “There are various tools, other than higher interest rates,…

Investors should increase allocations to active management strategies against an increasingly uncertain global backdrop, according to a new Willis Towers Watson (WTW) report. It is a “cyclically fertile ground for alpha.” The WTW analysis, ‘Outlook 2021’, says “skilled active management offers growing value for money, as a number of factors converge to add risk to passive plays.”…

Groups of amateur investors that gather on social media forums such as Reddit have organized to buy stocks and options in companies with high short interest like GameStop, AMC Entertainment and Blackberry, among others. The buying activity drove the stocks up sharply over the last several weeks and resulted in a massive short squeeze with…

In an imaginary world, being a hedge fund investor called Seth Klarman with a fund called Baupost would be fun, based purely on unusual names, but also on the longevity of his loyal followers. In the past week, this ‘renowned’ (there are a few after all) investor noted that the concept of risk has vanished…

As the year from hell winds down around the world, an influx of 2021 outlooks have flooded adviser inboxes around Australia. Most should be taken with a grain of salt, the standard global equity managers flagging strong equity returns and long bond managers suggesting the duration game isn’t over yet. In my experience though, the…

There are positive signs for the Australian economy following Wednesday’s third quarter GDP figure. It was a positive reading of 3.3% quarter on quarter, signalling a rebound in the economy is well underway. This marks the end to the pandemic led economic downturn and a gradual return to business normality. It was a massive beat…

Leading global ‘distressed debt’ manager Howard Marks and his Oaktree Capital firm are well-known for their sometimes combative and private equity approach to investment. The firm has increased its work in Australia in recent years after achieving some success buying-out and breaking-up the Blue Sky Alternative Asset Management empire, and more recent involvements with Virgin…

Australia is facing yet another round of export bans after Chinese authorities knocked back tonnes of lobsters, timber from Queensland, and barley from a second grain grower. Without warning, paid goods that had arrived at ports were sent back in what is known as a ‘soft ban’ that falls outside of current trade agreements. Authorities…