It’s been an astonishing two years for US equities, but the same can’t be said for global asset markets. 2025 could be a year to explore out of favour markets, according to Ruffer’s Jasmine Yeo.
The vigilantes aren’t back – yet. But the United States’ fiscal position is worse and the spectre of inflation has returned, and this time they would have a much stronger case, according to Ruffer’s Steve Russell.
Investors may have settled into an Anything But China mantra, and they may have good reason, but for calculated risk takers there may be a different case to make according to Ruffer’s Duncan MacInnes.
The sharp fall in markets in August was a sign of things to come, according to Ruffer, but one that investors haven’t heeded, with positioning and sentiment becoming even more extreme.
An eventual market correction won’t necessarily be marked by its depth, the famed British investor writes, but by its speed. Caution may come at a price, but Ruffer believes that cost will take on a different perspective by the time it’s been paid in full.
Artificial intelligence might be better at gathering and storing knowledge, but incorporating wisdom into an investment approach (or abandoning it altogether) remains the exclusive domain of humans – for now.
The 2024 Ruffer Review explores what the rise of artificial intelligence means for investors, the murky realities of cricket, and the “thankless endeavour” of forecasting. Also discussed are the technological developments that have shaped markets, and the political-economic ecosystem.
Technology stock valuations are rising, bucking the prevailing market conditions and further inverting the traditional bond/equities relationship. “This shouldn’t be happening”, says Ruffer’s Steve Russell.
Investors have a lot to gain from identifying the risks and opportunities present in the management of human capital. Productivity demands innovation, says Ruffer, and the companies that understand this will thrive.
The Bank of Japan has been marching to a different beat than other central banks. While the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England hurried to ramp up rates in a battle against inflation, a deflationary mist lingered over Japan. Until now…
It is striking how little little yield premium equities are offering over the official interest rate at them moment, says Ruffer’s Steve Russel. Investors may be tempted, but he warns that a cautious road may suit for the period ahead.
They can either tighten policy to squash inflation or ease to prevent financial contagion, but there’s no right answer for central banks according to Ruffer’s Duncan MacInnes.
“Gradually, and then suddenly”, the old Hemingway quote goes. The same could be said for corporate earnings, which Ruffer’s Jasmine Yeo believes are in danger of taking a sharp southerly turn.
It isn’t 2008 all over again, but dismissing the broader risks of SVB’s demise would be a mistake for investors, writes Ruffer CIO Henry Maxey.
It is perfectly possible that some inflationary measures fall back through zero, and prices actually deflate in an odd month, says Ruffer chair Jonathan Ruffer. If that happens, the complaisant assumption that inflation will go back to sleep again might look justified – but it will be a false dawn.
Sir Isaac Newton was one of the greatest scientists in history; he founded classical mechanics and the law of universal gravitation. For all that, he lost his life savings in the South Sea Bubble of 1720.
The British investment firm’s current cash weightings have hit historic levels after perceived risks in the global economy moved it to help preserve rather than accumulate capital.
After benefitting from climate calm for 8,000 years the foundations are being shaken. But with over 90 per cent of the global economies committed to net-zero we have a path to crack ‘both sides of the walnut’, according to Ruffer.
