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The sharp fall in markets in August was a sign of things to come, according to Ruffer, but one that investors haven’t heeded, with positioning and sentiment becoming even more extreme.

An eventual market correction won’t necessarily be marked by its depth, the famed British investor writes, but by its speed. Caution may come at a price, but Ruffer believes that cost will take on a different perspective by the time it’s been paid in full.

Artificial intelligence might be better at gathering and storing knowledge, but incorporating wisdom into an investment approach (or abandoning it altogether) remains the exclusive domain of humans – for now.

The 2024 Ruffer Review explores what the rise of artificial intelligence means for investors, the murky realities of cricket, and the “thankless endeavour” of forecasting. Also discussed are the technological developments that have shaped markets, and the political-economic ecosystem.

Technology stock valuations are rising, bucking the prevailing market conditions and further inverting the traditional bond/equities relationship. “This shouldn’t be happening”, says Ruffer’s Steve Russell.

Investors have a lot to gain from identifying the risks and opportunities present in the management of human capital. Productivity demands innovation, says Ruffer, and the companies that understand this will thrive.

The Bank of Japan has been marching to a different beat than other central banks. While the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of England hurried to ramp up rates in a battle against inflation, a deflationary mist lingered over Japan. Until now…

It is striking how little little yield premium equities are offering over the official interest rate at them moment, says Ruffer’s Steve Russel. Investors may be tempted, but he warns that a cautious road may suit for the period ahead.

They can either tighten policy to squash inflation or ease to prevent financial contagion, but there’s no right answer for central banks according to Ruffer’s Duncan MacInnes.

“Gradually, and then suddenly”, the old Hemingway quote goes. The same could be said for corporate earnings, which Ruffer’s Jasmine Yeo believes are in danger of taking a sharp southerly turn.