Opinion

Sideways….a weak opening ahead It was another bumpy, albeit positive, week for markets with the ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) gaining 0.4% on Friday and finishing around 2.0% higher for the week. The primary driver remained Australia’s main recovery hope, commodity exports, with the materials sector finishing 4.2% as the iron ore price remained above USD$115 per…

The ‘Vaccine’ rally was short-lived with a swathe of economic data sending the ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) 0.7% lower on Thursday.

The ASX 200 joined the global sharemarket rally, adding 1.9%, after healthcare US biotech company Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) announced positive results from their Phase 1 trial of a potential COVID-19 treatment.

Woodside Petroleum Ltd (ASX:WPL) was the latest to announce a write-down, with management reducing the value of their oil and gas assets by US $4.2 billion due to the lower oil price. WPL now trades at the same level it did in 2005, despite raising capital on multiple occasions, clear indication that the greatest opportunities lie in cleaner energy sources.

The ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) gained another 1%, taking a positive lead from US markets, with over 60% of the rally coming from the Big Four Banks, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd (ASX:CBA) up 2.2%, and miners, BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) up 2.2% after the iron ore price exceeding US$118 per tonne.

Despite being the secondary epicentre of COVID-19 the European experiment may be turning the corner, with unprecedented events finally delivering consensus on fiscal and monetary policy. This is not without pain, with the economy contracting 3.6% in March behind multi-decade record contractions of 5.3% in France and Italy and 5.2% in Spain. The ECB is predicted a 9% contraction in growth for the year.

Recent years have had pundits focus on the potential growth and relative valuation of emerging markets. The terminology alone is obtuse, just what is emerging? Korea, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Indonesia, Czech Republic?

The ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) surrendered early gains to finish Friday down 0.6%, pulling the market down -2.3% for the week. Real estate, -5.4%, and industrial’s, -4.6%, were among the hardest hit as Victoria’s spike in COVID-19 cases shut the second largest state down for another six weeks; Qantas Ltd (ASX:QAN) lead the falls down 8.0%. Despite offering a weaker leader to the ASX, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded positive results on Friday, driven 1.1% and 0.8% as the recovery in the banking sector continued.

It was another volatile day for the ASX 200 (ASX:XJO), with the market finishing 0.6% higher, as a weak lead from the US impacted on confidence. The only two detractors were the property and staples sector, with materials and mining once again a highlight, driven by BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP), +2.2%, and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO), 3.3%.

The ASX 200 finished 1.5% lower following a spike in COVID-19 cases in Melbourne resulting in an extended six-week lockdown. The weakness was exacerbated by record numbers in the US, where a daily record of 60,000 cases was hit.

Despite a strong overseas lead, the ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) paused on Tuesday, pushed marginally lower by the reinstatement of Stage 3 restrictions in Melbourne. A strong lead from the mining sector, particularly gold with St Barbara Mining Ltd (ASX:SBM) adding 10.3% and BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) up 1.3%, wasn’t enough to overcome an afternoon collapse in the property and travel sectors.

Too hot, too cold or, just right? It is suggested that this fairy tale has two moral issues, firstly, the sense of entitlement as Goldilocks freely samples the bears’ home and contents and secondly, question of what is ‘just right’.