Markets

The COVID-19 global pandemic is unfolding quite differently to all other major market events seen through history. Governments globally are facing a delicate balancing act between trying to minimise the health impact of the virus, whilst managing the severe disruption to their economies. The sudden and sharp shock facing the global economy appears without precedence.

I recently tried an experiment. I changed several light bulbs, and since one required a little rewiring, I sent my wife (also known as the majority shareholder) a bill for $110.50 (plus GST). In return, she sent me a bill of $457.98 for her preparation in late December of a sumptuous meal, plus her work managing all social connections associated with the holidays. 

Regardless of where they live, investors have a significant opportunity to diversify their equity portfolio outside of their home market.

Australia, like the rest of the developed world, is on the verge of the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history. It’s estimated more than $3 trillion will change hands over the next 10 to 20 years as the Baby Boomer generation pass on their wealth to others.

The third quarter capped the best year-to-date return for the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index since the first nine months of 2002. Although bond prices may continue to advance, we anticipate lower returns may accompany a rise in volatility in coming quarters.

If you’ve seen the movie The Big Short you will remember Christian Bale’s quirky character Michael Burry – the manager of the Scion Capital hedge fund who realises the US mortgage-backed security market is a massive bubble. He goes on to make a fortune by betting on its crash.

Capitalism’s days may be numbered – at least judging by recent polls. A majority of millennials reject the economic system, while 55 per cent of women aged 18 to 54 say they prefer socialism. More Democrats now have a positive view of socialism than capitalism.

On August 1, President Trump sent four tweets about China. With tweet three, which talked about additional tariffs on US$300 billion of goods exported from China to the US, Trump rocked markets by publicly escalating trade war rhetoric.

The global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has been in decline since 2017. Combined with the heightened risk of a prolonged US-China trade war; this has caused global interest rates to decline and for the US Federal Reserve to halt any further tightening of monetary policy.

I recently returned from a research trip to China and was struck by how seriously environmental issues are now being taken by government and town planners. As China continues to develop, environmental issues are increasingly front and centre in what is described in the country as a “war” against pollution.

For fixed-income investors, understanding environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors – as they are financially material to performance – has proven to be critical in assessing an issuer’s fundamental quality.

Last week’s wellbeing budget in New Zealand was based on the Livings Standards Framework (LSF), a set of wellbeing measures that include cultural identity, environment, income and consumption, and social connections. But these provide no overall index of the nation’s performance.