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Navigating the economic outlook by flashes of lightning

A data dependent Fed will eventually need to acknowledge signs of a strengthening global economy, says Neuberger Berman. Bolts of information that sway the central bank will continue to keep market watchers on tenterhooks.

Brad Tank | 11th Sep 2023 | More
Belgium overtakes Australia to top median-wealth rankings

Much of the 2.4 per cent decline in global wealth in 2022 – the second-biggest this century – stemmed from US dollar appreciation, but even controlling for exchange rates it was the slowest wealth increase since the GFC, UBS and Credit Suisse said in a new report. And for the first time, Australia did not record the highest median wealth in the developed world.

Tahn Sharpe | 7th Sep 2023 | More
  • Rate hike forecasts simmer down as employment and wage growth numbers soften

    Recently released wages data increases the likelihood the RBA will pause its rate hiking campaign for the near term, economists say. A soft landing for the economy is far from guaranteed, but the runway is getting clearer.

    Nicki Bourlioufas | 22nd Aug 2023 | More
    Earnings outlook murky after mixed reporting season cards: Analysts

    Despite continuing strong economic data for Australia, markets have forecast significant earnings downgrades, and results have been mixed so far. But a main highlight – CBA’s record $10 billion profit – may not be enough to improve investors’ outlook on the banking sector.

    Lisa Uhlman | 21st Aug 2023 | More
  • Global supply chains sweating on Panama precipitation levels

    It’s deja vu for global supply chains, but this time it isn’t a wayward tanker in the Suez Canal, but rather a lack of water in the Panama Canal that is threatening to derail trade, curb company profits and drag GDP all over the world.

    James Dunn | 21st Aug 2023 | More
    Did the great recession of 2023 just pass us by, or is it still lurking?

    Did one of the most widely forecast recessions just fail to materialise, Neuberger Berman asks, or are we entering a false dawn that could see investors trip over themselves to entertain more risk than is prudent?

    Tahn Sharpe | 9th Aug 2023 | More
    Howard Marks on market dislocation and remarkable credit opportunities

    The legendary investor says we’re in the midst of the third major shift he’s seen in his 50-year career, as a decades-long low-interest-rate environment shifts to something most investors have not yet experienced. It’s a new world in which credit investors – and especially bargain hunters – should thrive.

    Lisa Uhlman | 3rd Aug 2023 | More
    Soft landing harder to find as economy proves resilient to inflation

    Signs of rising economic optimism in Australia don’t change the narrative on the risk of recession, with chances remaining high for a deep downturn in Australia according to a new report.

    Lisa Uhlman | 28th Jul 2023 | More
    Westpac’s Evans sees no rate cuts before May as pessimism digs in

    Bill Evans, who will step down next year after three decades as Westpac’s chief economist, says “deeply pessimistic” consumer sentiment despite the RBA’s recent pause is a sign of further hikes ahead.

    Lisa Uhlman | 13th Jul 2023 | More
  • Despite the elephants slowing, two global equity sectors look set to prosper: Bell AM

    Plenty of significant investment opportunities exist in the market according to Bell Asset Management’s Ned Bell and John Malloy from Redwheel, but investors need to look beyond large caps and developed markets to find them.

    Staff Writer | 6th Jul 2023 | More
    Impending US recession provides opportunities for sage investors: Royce

    Fear of an impending recession in the US has been hashed out for more than 18 months now, says Francis Gannon. The reasons are myriad, but not enough people are talking about what shape a recovery would take and how investors should position themselves.

    Francis Gannon | 3rd Jul 2023 | More
    US shares outperform, but analysts doubt rally will continue

    True to form, US stocks are outperforming Aussie shares on the back of a resurgence in technology-related company valuations. Economists warn against straying from diversification, however, with Aussie miners still offering investors capital returns on top of an underlying hedge against a US downturn.

    Nicki Bourlioufas | 19th Jun 2023 | More
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