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Expect volatility bumps in the ‘last mile’ of disinflation road

It’s a narrow path to a ‘Goldilocks’ economic outcome with steep drops on either side. Any easing of inflation is likely to come with real market disruption, which should lead to more opportunity for skilled active managers to show their mettle.

Staff Writer | 31st Jan 2024 | More
Zero-rate anomaly won’t be repeated: Marks

Interest rates aren’t going back to what the current generation of investors consider ‘normal’ anytime soon, according to Oaktree’s Howard Marks, and different strategies will outperform in the years to come.

Staff Writer | 18th Jan 2024 | More
  • ‘The stock prices will follow’: Earnings key to big-picture portfolios

    Understanding how macroeconomic changes may affect companies’ earnings profiles is key to Ausbil Investment Management’s top-down approach, which lets the fund manager invest with confidence in uncertain markets by focussing on the things it does know, says CIO Paul Xiradis.

    Lisa Uhlman | 21st Dec 2023 | More
    ‘The triumph of hope over reality’: Why Ruffer expects higher, more volatile inflation

    Faced with the option of stunting ‘financial stability or growth stability’, the US will only go one way. So investors need to protect against more volatility and inflationary pressure, Alex Lennard warns. But at least it won’t be boring.

    Tahn Sharpe | 11th Dec 2023 | More
  • Expectations ‘reshuffled’ as resilient inflation delays tipping point on rates

    Stubborn inflation is forcing central banks around the world to recalibrate, according to Neuberger Berman. Shorter durations remain du jour while yields are strong, but hedging against monetary easing (especially in the US) could be savvy.

    Tahn Sharpe | 9th Nov 2023 | More
    Yield components key to understanding US bond market machinations: Ninety One

    The aggressive sell off in US bonds has prompted many to speculate that interest rates have adjusted upwards on a structural basis. But Ninety One investment strategist Russell Silbertson takes a different view.

    Steve Russell | 27th Oct 2023 | More
    Wealth hits record high, but wealth gap widens even further

    While Australian household wealth is hitting new records, research shows much of it is held by just a few people, with the richest 5 per cent of Australians seeing their assets grow in value by 86 per cent over the last 20 years.

    Nicki Bourlioufas | 9th Oct 2023 | More
    Uncertainty prevails, so quality is king: Neuberger Berman

    The inflationary cycle is at a tipping point both in Europe and the US as central governments sweat the lagged effect of rate rises on inflation. For investors, this only inflates the value of quality issuers according to Neuberger Berman.

    Tahn Sharpe | 5th Oct 2023 | More
    ‘Bonds are back’: Advisers shifting clients into fixed income as inflation persists

    Financial planners have already started rolling their clients towards fixed income and defensive assets, a panel has heard, as high interest rates and inflation continue to upend investment models.

    Lisa Uhlman | 29th Sep 2023 | More
  • Prepare for a ‘slow’ correction on interest rates: Bentham AM

    The current inflationary cycle is an “interesting” one, says Bentham CIO Richard Quinn, with a host of contributing factors that will all take their time playing out.

    Tahn Sharpe | 29th Sep 2023 | More
    Eyeing end of rate rises, Thinktank sees cause for optimism 

    Ongoing volatility is linked to uncertainty over interest rates, which appears likely to be nearing an end, the non-bank property lending specialist said. Buoyed by a recent $500 million CMBS deal that was more than twice oversubscribed, it maintains a “cautiously positive” outlook for credit performance.

    Lisa Uhlman | 27th Sep 2023 | More
    Banks hold out as soaring costs force Aussie blue chips to cut dividends

    Australian companies’ dividend payouts are down 24 per cent from a year ago, as higher interest rates and cash flow challenges darken the outlook. Payouts from miners decreased significantly, although the dividend picture remains positive for banks.

    Nicki Bourlioufas | 21st Sep 2023 | More
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