Economics

During the Great Moderation, the mantra was “be long and don’t touch”. But with a wave of transformation sweeping through markets, BlackRock thinks it’s time for investors to switch things up.

Why Powell went for a double-dip on the guide rate at the world’s most important reserve bank, sans the presence of a significant economic event that would typically predicate it, remains a mystery. What is clear, though, is the near-term direction of rates in US.

The sharp fall in markets in August was a sign of things to come, according to Ruffer, but one that investors haven’t heeded, with positioning and sentiment becoming even more extreme.

A panel of investment managers and advisers from The Inside Network’s Investment Leaders Forum painted a relatively positive macroeconomic picture. While market risks remain, the ‘higher for longer’ rate mantra seems less convincing than it once did.

Cracks are opening up in global economies around the world, with increasing unemployment a bellwether for softening conditions. A tipping point is on the horizon, but central banks remain wary.

Whether you perceive the RBA’s messaging to be balanced or mixed, the uncertainty serves as a reminder that fixed income is a vital sleeve in any investment portfolio.

It’s been one of the most disappointing regions in the world in terms of performance, but Pzena Investment Management thinks China’s bombed-out equity market presents “a real win opportunity”.

Indices are flush in developed markets the world over, but that doesn’t mean prices have necessarily peaked according to Invesco chief global market strategist Kristina Hooper.

The tailwinds for disinflation are starting to coalesce across the globe, which should give some central banks the ‘anchoring’ required to start dropping rates by the middle of the year.

It’s a narrow path to a ‘Goldilocks’ economic outcome with steep drops on either side. Any easing of inflation is likely to come with real market disruption, which should lead to more opportunity for skilled active managers to show their mettle.

Interest rates aren’t going back to what the current generation of investors consider ‘normal’ anytime soon, according to Oaktree’s Howard Marks, and different strategies will outperform in the years to come.

Understanding how macroeconomic changes may affect companies’ earnings profiles is key to Ausbil Investment Management’s top-down approach, which lets the fund manager invest with confidence in uncertain markets by focussing on the things it does know, says CIO Paul Xiradis.