Economics

In the first half of 2022 the market fell almost as much as it did when Europe tumbled into World War Two. Then it reversed course – and famed bubble spotter Jeremy Grantham says a new artificial intelligence bubble is the cause.

A data dependent Fed will eventually need to acknowledge signs of a strengthening global economy, says Neuberger Berman. Bolts of information that sway the central bank will continue to keep market watchers on tenterhooks.

Much of the 2.4 per cent decline in global wealth in 2022 – the second-biggest this century – stemmed from US dollar appreciation, but even controlling for exchange rates it was the slowest wealth increase since the GFC, UBS and Credit Suisse said in a new report. And for the first time, Australia did not record the highest median wealth in the developed world.

Recently released wages data increases the likelihood the RBA will pause its rate hiking campaign for the near term, economists say. A soft landing for the economy is far from guaranteed, but the runway is getting clearer.

Despite continuing strong economic data for Australia, markets have forecast significant earnings downgrades, and results have been mixed so far. But a main highlight – CBA’s record $10 billion profit – may not be enough to improve investors’ outlook on the banking sector.

It’s deja vu for global supply chains, but this time it isn’t a wayward tanker in the Suez Canal, but rather a lack of water in the Panama Canal that is threatening to derail trade, curb company profits and drag GDP all over the world.

Did one of the most widely forecast recessions just fail to materialise, Neuberger Berman asks, or are we entering a false dawn that could see investors trip over themselves to entertain more risk than is prudent?

The legendary investor says we’re in the midst of the third major shift he’s seen in his 50-year career, as a decades-long low-interest-rate environment shifts to something most investors have not yet experienced. It’s a new world in which credit investors – and especially bargain hunters – should thrive.

Signs of rising economic optimism in Australia don’t change the narrative on the risk of recession, with chances remaining high for a deep downturn in Australia according to a new report.

Bill Evans, who will step down next year after three decades as Westpac’s chief economist, says “deeply pessimistic” consumer sentiment despite the RBA’s recent pause is a sign of further hikes ahead.

Plenty of significant investment opportunities exist in the market according to Bell Asset Management’s Ned Bell and John Malloy from Redwheel, but investors need to look beyond large caps and developed markets to find them.

Fear of an impending recession in the US has been hashed out for more than 18 months now, says Francis Gannon. The reasons are myriad, but not enough people are talking about what shape a recovery would take and how investors should position themselves.