In the final weeks of the year, there appear the inevitable reports on what eventuated in 2020, coupled with the near-universal view that 2021 is lining up as another risk-on whopper. Rates will remain range-bound, therefore we can bunker down in equities and anything else that takes our fancy outside of bonds. History suggests that…
Machines and the Mind Around 70%-80% of equity market volume is driven by algorithmic trading. There are a host of actors in this process, from hedge funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and commodity trading advisers (CTAs). It also includes fundamental investors that refine their positions, for example, “percentage of volume” (POV) execution that matches ‘buy’ or…
Way back when it was possible to have relatively open conversations with company management and receive mostly unscripted responses. Nowadays the access is limited, and minders watch carefully for any possible deviation from the standard line. The politician response of saying whatever you want regardless of the question has clearly been taken on board. For…
Crystal balls and fortune cookies Is history an investment guide, the rhyme not repeat version? Those that offer advice on asset allocation rely heavily on past data to support their view of future returns. At its simplest there is mean reversion to trend. Perhaps the challenge is what trend to revert to. There are a…
Words, words, words * Many of us spend quite a bit of time reading commentary and reports from fund managers. At times it feels like a desperate search for truth, or at least a unique insight that comforts one that investing has fundamental foundations. There are a large number of big-picture reports which are typically…
There have been plenty of reasons to visit a bookie recently, given the Melbourne Cup Carnival and the US election. Financial commentators provide a rather dull set of probabilities on what the result on the latter could be and a predictable list of winners and losers. One trend that looks set to continue is the…
More than a sport, a financial mismatch There is an awkward, yet in many ways predictable, relationship between investors and the providers of investments. An old-fashioned assessment of demand and supply can be helpful. If equity market exuberance is high, any listing attracts the heat of attention and can be sold to eager investors hoping…
The mention of emerging markets (EM) opens up a messy vista of many complex and troublesome issues, not least in China, representing the beating heart of EM. Add in a lack of central bank independence, volatile currencies, unpredictable governments and it is little wonder that EM struggles with a risk/return balance. Through to the end…
Generalising is a dark art. The moment one observes an apparent pattern, idiosyncratic data jumps out. Judging small-cap managers falls into this trap. Firstly, to the organisation. Those that are entirely dedicated to this sector can do well, yet are interspersed are some big shops with banal marketing that challenge this assumption. Boutique is not…
Assume you are the global portfolio manager of the Sector Hindsight Fund. This allows you to make decisions with knowledge about equity sector performance with hindsight, but not stocks within the sectors. The pedantic client base would expect you to show risk management as well, therefore a single sector is not on. Beating the global…
