SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic: the IPO wave that could shake up your portfolio

The initial public offering (IPO) market is stirring again in the United States, but the more consequential story is not the window reopening. It is what is waiting on the other side of it.

SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, Stripe and Anduril represent a wave of private companies whose combined market capitalisation, once public, could be large enough to reprice growth equities more broadly.

Franklin Templeton’s chief market strategist and head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, Stephen Dover, is watching this closely and has a pointed view on what it means for investors.

SpaceX is the bellwether

Of all the names in the pipeline, SpaceX is the one Dover nominates as the real test. “A SpaceX IPO would force investors to value a unique mix of orbital launch, Starlink broadband, defence-adjacent infrastructure, and long-duration opportunity,” he says. “Demand for this IPO is unlikely to be the issue; the real test will be valuation, governance and how much capital intensity public investors are willing to absorb.”

That is a more nuanced challenge than simple demand. SpaceX is not a conventional technology business. It operates across multiple verticals with very different risk profiles, long investment horizons and significant ongoing capital requirements. How the market chooses to value that complexity will set a reference point for everything that follows.

AI platforms are harder to price

OpenAI and Anthropic present a different challenge. Both carry extraordinary growth trajectories and genuine strategic importance. But Dover is measured about what public market investors would actually be underwriting. “Meaningful uncertainty around compute costs, margin structure, capital needs and the timing of free cash flow” are his words, and they reflect a real tension between the narrative value of these businesses and the financial reality of what they cost to run.

For advisers and investors accustomed to valuing software businesses on recurring revenue multiples, AI platform economics require a different framework entirely. The compute costs are substantial, the margin structure is still evolving and free cash flow may be years away for some of these businesses.

The supply risk nobody is talking about

Dover flags a risk that has received surprisingly little attention: the supply of new paper hitting the market simultaneously.

“If several mega-cap IPOs come in the same window of time, they will compete for capital not only with each other, but also with existing publicly traded growth stocks. That could create rotation pressure across software, semiconductors, fintech, defence tech and AI beneficiaries.”

For advisers managing client exposure to listed growth equities, focus on the rotation risk. A wave of high-profile IPOs does not just create new investment opportunities. It can also pull capital away from existing positions in adjacent sectors, creating short-term valuation pressure in portfolios that have no direct IPO exposure at all.

Quality over excitement

Dover’s investment framework for navigating this environment is clear. “We think this should be treated as a selective stock-picking opportunity, not a broad IPO trade,” he says. “The best opportunities will likely be companies with category leadership, strong unit economics, and a clear path to profitability, while weaker deals could struggle quickly in the aftermarket.”

That is a vital filter for advisers fielding client interest in IPO activity. The excitement around names like SpaceX and OpenAI is understandable, but not every deal in the pipeline will have the same fundamental quality. Some will have been priced aggressively during the prior private market cycle and will face a real-time valuation reset when public market investors apply their own discipline.

What a healthy IPO market actually means

Dover’s broader point is worth holding onto. A healthy IPO market serves a function beyond individual deals. It improves exit activity, recycles capital back into venture and growth investing and supports broader risk appetite. A weak aftermarket, on the other hand, closes the window quickly and has consequences that ripple back through private markets.

For advisers with clients invested in private market funds or venture-linked strategies, the health of the IPO market is not just a listed equities story. It is a liquidity story that affects the entire private capital ecosystem.

The window is open. What comes through it, and how public markets price it, will matter well beyond the IPO date.