Home / Property / Why H1 2024 may be a residential property buying window (for some)

Why H1 2024 may be a residential property buying window (for some)

It will be brief, geographically limited and may not come at all, but if SQM Research's prognostications are again correct there may be reason for aspiring property buyers to smile early next year.
Property

Zoom out far enough on Sydney property prices over the last century or so, and the trend is clear; prices accelerate rapidly, then flatten or decline for a short period before ramping up again.

In Sydney and Melbourne, the acceleration has been sustained over the last decade or so, but we may be long awaited blip according to recent data from SQM Research, which predicts that one of those periods may be just around the corner.

Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are set to experience “moderate” housing price falls of somewhere between 1 per cent and 5 per cent in 2024 as the lag effect of sustained high interest rates bite into affordability and the property market softens, according to SQM Research’s Housing Boom and Bust Report 2025.

  • “2024 has recorded an increasingly softer housing market for Sydney and as the spring selling season
    draws to an end, there has been evidence of further weakening to the point where Sydney housing
    prices are now falling as recorded by SQM Research and other property data providers,” the report states. “There are no leading indicators at this point in time to suggest this current downward trend will reverse.

    “Melbourne is also predicted to continue on with its current correction with prices tipped to fall by a
    further 1 per cent to 5 per cent over 2025,” it continues. “The bulk of the weakness over 2025 is likely to occur in the inner-city ring where SQM has been recording surges in distressed listings.”

    The expected pullback is not guaranteed, as one of the contingent factors is that the Reserve Bank holds off on cutting interest rates until near-mid year. SQM forecasts an interest cute between 0.25 per cent and 0.5 per cent around then based on the view that inflation will continue to soften and growth in the economy will stay below trend.

    The predicted fall will also be contained in the two major cities, SQM says. Perth is expected to experience the largest dwelling price rise in 2024, at somewhere between 14 per cent and 19 per cent. “While this will be a very fast rate of growth, it will nevertheless represent a slight slowdown from the 25 per cent+ price rises that have been occurring over 2024,” the report states.

    Brisbane, too, will continue its property boom. Despite supply issues, the Queensland capital is set to benefit from 2032 Olympic games hosting duties.

    “Brisbane is forecasted to record strong dwelling price rises of between 9 per cent to 14 per cent in what will be its 12th straight year of dwelling price increases,” the report continues. “SQM has a longer-term view that the Brisbane housing market is likely to outperform the national housing market through to the 2032 Olympic Games.”

    Tahn Sharpe

    Tahn is managing editor across The Inside Network's three publications.




    Print Article

    Related
    Income, growth and impact: Why the SDA sector is the next big emerging asset class

    Born out of a government program, the Specialist Disability Income sector has expanded into a robust private market investment opportunity for those with the expertise to navigate its unique characteristics.

    Tahn Sharpe | 5th Dec 2024 | More
    What really matters in alternatives manager selection

    High returns help, but what’s more important is trust, accountability, and making sure that the remuneration structures aren’t “really cheeky”.

    Tahn Sharpe | 2nd Dec 2024 | More
    Property subsectors firm as positive portfolio additions across the spectrum

    While it’s broadly considered an alternative asset class, there are still traditional and non-traditional subsectors to real estate. Both have their idiosyncratic features, and both are becoming increasingly attractive to investors across the entire spectrum.

    Tahn Sharpe | 2nd Dec 2024 | More
    Popular
  • Popular posts: