More retirees and rising complexity: the challenge facing advisers 

Craig Brooke’s starting point is not markets, but people. Much of the industry debate focuses on regulation, asset classes and portfolio construction. He argues, however, that the bigger force shaping advice today is demographic change. Australia is ageing rapidly. That shift is colliding with a more complex regulatory and investment landscape. The result is a growing gap between the advice Australians need and the system’s ability to deliver it.

That gap is not theoretical. Brooke points out that there are roughly half as many advisers today as there were three decades ago, yet demand for advice has arguably never been higher. As new rules such as Div 296 come into view, the question is no longer just how portfolios are structured: it is how clients access guidance at scale, and whether the industry is equipped to meet that demand. 

The demographic wave is the real driver 

Brooke’s most striking point is the scale of demographic change underway. Australia’s population aged 80 and over is set to increase dramatically over the next decade, rising from around 450,000 people to well over a million. That is not just a statistic. It represents a cohort that has accumulated wealth over a lifetime and now needs to convert it into income, manage tax outcomes and transfer assets efficiently across generations. 

This is where he sees the intersection with policy changes such as Div 296. Superannuation, long treated as the default retirement vehicle, may no longer be sufficient on its own, particularly for higher balances. Brooke highlights that outcomes such as tax leakage on death benefits are already poorly understood by many investors, and that complexity will only increase as more wealth moves through the system. 

For advisers, the implication is clear. The intergenerational wealth transfer is not an abstract theme. It is a practical, near-term challenge, driven by the number of Australians moving into later life stages and needing help to navigate increasingly complex decisions. 

The toolkit is expanding beyond super 

Brooke’s second argument is that advisers need to think more broadly about structures outside superannuation. As regulatory settings evolve, more capital is likely to move into alternative vehicles, including investment bonds and other tax-aware structures. 

He estimates that between $180 billion and $240 billion could shift out of super over the next few years, though not all of it will be easily mobile. Some assets will remain tied up in SMSFs or illiquid holdings, but a meaningful portion is likely to find its way into other parts of the investment ecosystem. That creates both opportunity and pressure. 

One challenge Brooke identifies is capacity. Investment bonds, for example, have seen a resurgence in interest, yet the number of providers has shrunk dramatically over the past few decades. If flows accelerate, there is a risk of bottlenecks forming in parts of the system that have not kept pace with demand. 

“Australians need more advice now, arguably than ever.” 

For advisers, this shift reinforces the need to understand a wider toolkit. Super remains central, but it is no longer sufficient as a standalone solution. Portfolio construction is becoming more structural, involving multiple wrappers, tax regimes and time horizons. 

Private credit demand is real, but understanding is uneven 

Brooke’s third focus is private credit, and here his tone becomes more cautionary. He does not question the role of the asset class. In fact, he acknowledges that income demand, particularly among older investors, will continue to support allocations to credit strategies. The issue, in his view, is how well investors understand what they are buying. 

His experience with clients was revealing. Many believed they were investing in private credit, but in reality, were holding products with very different risk characteristics. That prompted a deeper internal review at KeyInvest, applying multiple layers of filtering across hundreds of managers and funds. The result was a dramatic narrowing of the investable universe. 

Brooke’s concern is that not all structures offer the protections investors assume. Issues such as control over underlying assets, the true nature of security and the use of special purpose vehicles (SPVs) can materially change risk outcomes. In some cases, investors may not even hold direct rights over the assets they believe they are exposed to. 

He also draws a clear distinction between retail and wholesale markets. While retail funds tend to operate under stricter disclosure and compliance regimes, wholesale structures may not. Brooke has been vocal in encouraging regulators to look more closely at this part of the market, particularly as private assets become more widely adopted. 

The message is not to avoid private credit, but to interrogate it more thoroughly. Income demand is real, and the asset class will continue to grow. But that growth increases the importance of due diligence, governance and transparency. 

Brooke’s broader conclusion is that several structural forces are converging at once. An ageing population, evolving regulation, expanding private markets and a shrinking advice workforce are all interacting in ways that will shape the next decade of financial advice. None of these trends are new in isolation. What is new is the speed at which they are colliding. 

For advisers, that raises a practical challenge. The need for advice is rising, the tools are becoming more complex and the margin for error is narrowing. In that environment, the question is not just what to invest in; it is how to deliver advice at scale, with clarity and confidence, to a client base that needs it more than ever.