Daily Market Update: 21 April 2025

ASX (ASX:XJO) consolidates as Hormuz standoff sends oil surging; NAB (ASX:NAB) flags $706m in impairments

The Australian sharemarket consolidated on Monday as investors weighed a renewed standoff over the Strait of Hormuz after the US Navy seized an Iranian ship during a chaotic weekend that saw Tehran fire at vessels and reimpose controls in the strait. The S&P/ASX 200 added 6.4 points to 8,953.3 after hitting an intraday low of 8,898.4 – the benchmark is up 5.6 per cent so far in April after its worst month since 2022 in March. Brent crude spiked as much as 8 per cent before easing to around US$95.50, with reports that Iran may not attend a second round of talks this week adding to uncertainty ahead of Tuesday’s ceasefire expiry. Energy was the weakest sector – Viva Energy (ASX:VEA) dived 9.1 per cent after a fire at its Geelong refinery, Woodside (ASX:WDS) fell 2.9 per cent and Santos (ASX:STO) 1.3 per cent. NAB (ASX:NAB) dropped 3.6 per cent after flagging $706 million in impairments and a sharp increase in bad debt provisions from borrowers affected by the Iran war, ahead of first-half results. Consumer stocks led the gains after UBS raised earnings forecasts for supermarkets on food inflation – Woolworths (ASX:WOW) rose 1.9 per cent, Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) 2.4 per cent and Coles (ASX:COL) 1.2 per cent. CBA (ASX:CBA) added 1.1 per cent while Westpac (ASX:WBC) rose 0.7 per cent.

Worley (ASX:WOR) warns of $30–40m earnings hit from Iran conflict; Karoon (ASX:KAR) cut by Fitch

In company news, Worley (ASX:WOR) fell 5.8 per cent after warning the Middle East conflict would reduce FY26 underlying EBITA by $30–40 million, driven by project delays and slower new awards. Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR)dropped 6.5 per cent after Fitch revised its outlook from stable to negative, citing production sustainability and project timing amid operational disruptions. Qube (ASX:QUB) was flat despite flagging a $10–20 million EBITA hit from the conflict through higher fuel costs and weaker agri and forestry volumes – though management said it would not affect the sale to a Macquarie consortium. ASX Limited (ASX:ASX) slipped 0.5 per cent after confirming its CHESS Release 1 was live, with all approved market operators successfully connected before market open.

Wall Street retreats from records as Hormuz standoff deepens ahead of ceasefire expiry; oil tops US$95

Wall Street pulled back from record highs on Monday as a turbulent weekend in the Middle East cast doubt on prospects for a US-Iran deal before their fragile ceasefire expires. The S&P 500 halted a five-day advance, weighed by losses in several tech giants, as President Trump said it was unlikely he would extend the truce if an agreement isn’t reached, adding the Strait of Hormuz would remain blocked until an accord is finalised – the ceasefire expires Wednesday evening Washington time. Brent settled above US$95, with Citi warning prices could hit US$110 if Hormuz traffic remains disrupted for another month. Treasuries and the dollar wavered. The much-touted reopening of the strait on Friday barely lasted a day before tensions flared again, with the US Navy seizing an Iranian ship and Tehran reimposing controls. Investors are also watching Tuesday’s confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to lead the Fed, who said in prepared remarks that he is committed to ensuring monetary policy independence. March retail sales are also due Tuesday, with analysts expecting elevated fuel costs to squeeze consumer spending elsewhere. In corporate news, Marvell Technology (NYSE:MRVL) climbed after reports that Google is in discussions to develop two new AI chips, while AST SpaceMobile (NYSE:ASTS) sank after Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket failed to correctly place its satellite payload into orbit