Australian companies’ dividend payouts are down 24 per cent from a year ago, as higher interest rates and cash flow challenges darken the outlook. Payouts from miners decreased significantly, although the dividend picture remains positive for banks.
Much of the 2.4 per cent decline in global wealth in 2022 – the second-biggest this century – stemmed from US dollar appreciation, but even controlling for exchange rates it was the slowest wealth increase since the GFC, UBS and Credit Suisse said in a new report. And for the first time, Australia did not record the highest median wealth in the developed world.
The crippling doom loop between the banks and the real economy we saw in 2008 is unlikely to feature in the coming recession, says Ruffer’s Jamie Dannhauser, who is more concerned about a violent liquidation in financial markets.
The current economic cycle is too changeable to set any portfolio to autopilot, according to Mason Stevens’ Jacqueline Fernley. Counterpoints to conviction are needed, and the devil’s advocate should be your friend.
It is perfectly possible that some inflationary measures fall back through zero, and prices actually deflate in an odd month, says Ruffer chair Jonathan Ruffer. If that happens, the complaisant assumption that inflation will go back to sleep again might look justified – but it will be a false dawn.
The US economy should experience a “benign disinflation” over the next six months as pandemic-infused snarls unravel. That should mean good things for stocks, at least in the short term.
A recent survey shows 74 per cent of Australian business leaders expect profits to increase in the year ahead, despite a still-challenging outlook and sticky inflation.
With the US Federal Reserve signalling more rate rises to come, the odds of a global recession have risen to 40 per cent.
I recently tried an experiment. I changed several light bulbs, and since one required a little rewiring, I sent my wife (also known as the majority shareholder) a bill for $110.50 (plus GST). In return, she sent me a bill of $457.98 for her preparation in late December of a sumptuous meal, plus her work managing all social connections associated with the holidays.
Last week’s wellbeing budget in New Zealand was based on the Livings Standards Framework (LSF), a set of wellbeing measures that include cultural identity, environment, income and consumption, and social connections. But these provide no overall index of the nation’s performance.
